1 hour ago
DRAFT STRATEGY #1 : Drafting defenses based on scheduling.
As a diehard fantasy football player, I never ever draft the top defense. Why is that? Well, over the past 10 years, 10 different D/ST have been dubbed the top defense. There has not be a SINGLE season where a defense repeated as the number three be D/ST. Why? Well, it’s mostly due to scheduling.
You see, the past two years have been prime examples of how scheduling can really influence the number one defense. The Bears and Jaguars placed last in their division the year before their breakout performances. If you don’t know NFL scheduling, teams who finish last respectively play all last place finishers in their conference the next year. This means all teams who finish first in their division play all first place finishers in their conference and so on. Finishing last before their breakout years led to the Jags and Bears facing easier schedules, and ultimately, more appealing fantasy options. Finishing first can lead to worse scheduling the proceeding year, which is why I’m staying away from defenses such as the Bears, Saints, Texans, and LAR, especially for where their ADP are. I like other options better.
On a smaller note, my top 3 defenses this year are all in two divisions. My top 3 D/ST are the Bills, Eagles, and Cowboys. I think this year, the two worst overall divisions offensively are the AFC East and NFC East, as these teams all play the Redskins, Giants, Jets, and Dolphins. I believe these teams will be the worst in the league offensively, which is why those defenses will flourish.
I think a very similar team to these past two defensive fantasy champions are the Buffalo Bills.
Listen, the Bills last year were a surprisingly good defense. They ranked as the 2nd best defense in the NFL in yards allowed, and allowed the fewest passing yards per game. I think the Bills more systematic rising offense this year with an upgraded running back corps will lead them to controlling the tempo and TOP in most games, which will boost their defense to #1. Draft your defenses based on easier schedules! #bills #eagles #cowboys #nfl #fantasyfootball #jukes #football #billsmafia #bears #jaguars #chicago #NFL